Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well and we expect regional growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on Russia, Romania and Turkey.
Monetary policy cycles will continue to diverge. We expect interest rate hikes in Czechia and Poland over the coming months, while rates should remain on hold in Russia, Hungary and Israel for now. In contrast, Turkey’s central bank has begun a gradual easing cycle that we expect to continue next year as inflation falls.
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