Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause

Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts...

22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026)

22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Diverging interest rate cycles

Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on...

15th September 2026 · 21 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy

A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we...

11th September 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Rate cut windows (re-)open in Turkey and Hungary

Softer inflation suggests that there’s more scope for monetary easing this year in Hungary and Turkey than we had previously thought, and we have pencilled in more rate cuts into our profile. In...

28th August 2026 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2026)

The further fall in Hungarian inflation meant the 25bp interest rate cut (to 5.50%) today was never in doubt and it’s now looking likely that the base rate will be cut well into Q4. We have pencilled...

25th August 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (August 2026)

Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania...

25th August 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s tax proposals, climate disruptions persist

Poland's latest income and corporate tax proposals reduce the risk of a further widening of the budget deficit next year, but the government is still avoiding the tougher task of tackling a...

21st August 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last

Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural...

19th August 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern

EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded...

13th August 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Danube disruption, temporary damage

Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4...

7th August 2026 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary’s energy crisis casts cloud over recovery

Low water levels in the Danube are forcing Hungary to take its nuclear power plant offline, prompting officials to urge cuts in energy consumption. The scale of the macroeconomic effects will, of...

31st July 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech & Hungary GDP (Q2 2026)

The relatively weak 0.4% q/q GDP growth recorded in both Hungary and Czechia in Q2 suggests that both economies weren’t as resilient to the effects of the energy shock as we had anticipated. This...

30th July 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026)

The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’...

28th July 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026)

Hungary’s central bank (MNB) cut its policy rate by another 25bp today, to 5.75%, and we think a backdrop of below-target inflation will allow the MNB to continue easing over the coming months. Our...

21st July 2026 · 2 mins read