Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Headaches for central banks If the conflict in the Middle East causes energy prices to rise further – and for a prolonged period – policymakers in Emerging Europe are probably going to be more inclined to raise rates than those... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Four years of war takes its toll Four years of war have made Russia’s economy look increasingly fragile. Capacity constraints are biting and vulnerabilities are growing in the banking sector. Still, the economic cost of the war... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: below-target inflation to prompt more easing Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has surprised to the downside in recent months and is now below central banks’ targets. While we expect inflation to rise by year-end, it will follow... 24th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by 25bp today, to 6.25%, will likely be followed by further interest rate cuts over the coming months. We will firm up our new forecast... 24th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly BoI meeting amid Iran tensions, CEE rates, Rubio’s visit Data out of Israel over the past week have increased the probability that the Bank of Israel (BoI) will cut interest rates at its meeting next Monday, but the decision may depend on how tensions with... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be... 18th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does Hungary need a US financial backstop? Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian elections? Tisza manifesto, Romania GDP Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes... 13th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Consumer Prices (Jan. 2026) The larger-than-expected fall in Hungarian inflation, to 2.1% y/y, in January, is likely to prompt the central bank to resume its monetary easing cycle when it meets later this month. We are now... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q4 2025 & Annual 2025) GDP figures out of Central Europe this morning show that Poland’s recovery gathered pace, while Hungary lagged behind. We think that growth will pick up across the region this year, although Poland... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
