Dovish MNB keeps the door wide open for further cuts

The communications that followed the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the base rate earlier today support our view that there’s a clear path for further easing in the coming months. We expect 25bp cuts at the next three meetings, taking the policy rate to 5.25%, followed by a pause until the second half of 2027. But if anything, the dovish tone of the statement suggests that the risk to our forecast lies to the downside.