Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing process enters a more difficult phase The latest data out of Turkey have reinforced our view that the rebalancing process is becoming more challenging. At the heart of the problem is excessively strong domestic demand and the tension... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a fiscal health check A dramatic late-year cut to spending helped Russia’s government meet its deficit target of 2.6% of GDP last year. This does not signal that fiscal strains are forcing President Putin to scale back the... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of... 20th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficit no concern for Israeli shekel Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming... 6th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s credit engine still misfiring The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in... 30th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s investment slump to ease, but challenges remain We think the investment slump that has caused Hungary’s economy to underperform its Central European peers is close to bottoming out, but ongoing delays to EU funds and overcapacity in certain parts... 16th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU’s CBAM takes carbon pricing global The looming introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the start of 2026 will finally extend the “polluter pays” principle to emissions imported into the bloc. This report –... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
