Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish MNB keeps the door wide open for further cuts The communications that followed the Hungarian central bank’s (MNB’s) decision to cut the base rate earlier today support our view that there’s a clear path for further easing in the coming months. We... 23rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: the next hurdles for unlocking EU funds The European Commission’s agreement in principle to unlock €16.4bn of frozen EU funds marks a major step forward for Hungary and would significantly improve the economic outlook. But disbursement is... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE weathering the energy shock for now The latest surveys for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for May point to resilience in the face of the energy shock caused by the Iran war, with overall economic sentiment holding up well across... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) kept the base rate at 6.25% today, but weak price pressures and the rally in the forint suggest that the door has opened to easing, with a 25bp cut a possibility at the... 26th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q1 2026) The much better-than-expected Hungarian Q1 GDP figure, and the rise in sentiment indicators this month, will give the incoming Tisza government more optimism that it may be able to achieve its... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate unchanged at 6.25% today and, despite the rally in markets after the Tisza election victory and below-target inflation, we think renewed interest rate... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
