There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement on a financial package would increasingly tip the balance of probabilities towards the war ending on terms favourable to Russia. Meanwhile, market attention has shifted this week to the prospect of interest rate hikes in some economies. We think Czechia and, to a lesser extent, Poland could be among the first to move to monetary tightening.
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