Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Soft CEE inflation, Russia under more strain Inflation data released this week for Czechia and Hungary surprised again to the downside, which supports our view that the Czech central bank’s tightening cycle will be short and that the easing... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB resumes easing, CNB minutes, Russian industry The sharp downgrade in the Hungarian central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the door is wide open for interest rate cuts. We think inflation won’t be as soft as the central bank projects, but... 26th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A few more Czech rate hikes in the pipeline The communications following the Czech National Bank’s (CNB’s) decision to hike the policy rate today didn’t commit the MPC to further tightening. But with growth likely to exceed consensus... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) The decision by the Czech National Bank (CNB) to hike its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% marks the start of what is likely to be a modest tightening cycle, with perhaps just one or two more 25bp moves... 18th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian geopolitics, crunch time in Turkey Armenia’s election on Sunday could mark a further step in the country’s shift away from Russia and towards the West, adding tensions at a time when Russia’s geopolitical leverage has weakened... 5th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE weathering the energy shock for now The latest surveys for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for May point to resilience in the face of the energy shock caused by the Iran war, with overall economic sentiment holding up well across... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish rhetoric in Central Europe but no rush to tighten Communications from central banks in Czechia and Poland this week suggest that both are set to keep rates unchanged for a long time. That said, policymakers in Poland would probably be the first to... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Czech National Bank’s decision to leave the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50% will be accompanied by upwards revisions to its inflation forecasts in the post-meeting communications. But as... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
