Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators increased in most Central and Eastern European economies in November, but sentiment remains at levels that have been consistent with recessions in most countries... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Past peak inflation – what now for EM policymakers? 1669906800 Inflation appears to have finally peaked for emerging markets – but how quickly will price pressures now ease, and what will that mean for the 2023 outlook?
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2022) Q3 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe were generally a bit better than we had expected, but pockets of weakness were beginning to emerge as the Czech and Hungarian economies both recorded q/q... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2022) & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The 0.4% q/q contraction in Czech GDP in Q3 provides the first clear sign that the economy as a whole is buckling. We think the economy is now in a recession which will last until early next year... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Gloomy outlook for Prague office rents The post-pandemic rebound in the Prague office market is likely to prove short-lived. With the Czech economy slowing and employment expected to contract, occupier demand will soften just as new office... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE central banks treading a difficult path Central banks in Central Europe are attempting to draw their tightening cycles to a close, but they are treading a difficult path given the strength of inflation and mounting downward pressure on... 30th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: monetary tightening now biting hard Higher interest rates are already having an impact in CEE and a large part of the tightening of monetary conditions has yet to feed through. This will add to the headwinds facing growth in the coming... 29th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September out of Central and Eastern Europe revealed a further decline and suggest to us that the region as a whole is at the start of a recession. Meanwhile... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read