Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and leading indicators have weakened at the start of Q3. With interest rates likely to be kept high in Russia and Turkey over the coming months, we think that a further slowdown in both countries lies in store. Meanwhile, in Central and Eastern Europe, weakness in key euro-zone trading partners is likely to drag on recoveries. That said, strong wage growth and sticky services inflation will remain a concern for central banks, and in several countries in the region, we think that interest rates will stay higher than is widely assumed.
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