Global Economics Chart Pack (October 2026)

The world economy remains resilient, with business surveys suggesting that growth has accelerated in recent months. World trade is expanding strongly, helped by the AI buildout, while consumption has proved resilient to high energy prices. Recent falls in consumer confidence are a warning sign but provided energy prices do not take another leg up, the global economy should continue to muddle through. Central banks are likely to deliver one or two more rate hikes, but we generally expect rates to peak below market expectations and fall back sooner. Meanwhile, surging French bond yields will reinforce the pressure for growth-sapping austerity in the world’s most indebted economies. But France is particularly vulnerable, and we do not expect its problems to trigger widespread fiscal crises.