Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open

Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak...

18th May 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength

Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the...

15th May 2026 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

The case for further shekel strength

The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained...

14th May 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s cybersecurity sector and the AI challenge

Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely...

23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026)

The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but...

30th March 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey

Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net...

6th March 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran

The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back...

2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

US and Israel strike Iran

The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited...

28th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 26)

The Bank of Israel’s (BoI’s) decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today underscores its commitment to a cautious easing cycle despite softer recent inflation data. We continue to expect...

23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

BoI meeting amid Iran tensions, CEE rates, Rubio’s visit

Data out of Israel over the past week have increased the probability that the Bank of Israel (BoI) will cut interest rates at its meeting next Monday, but the decision may depend on how tensions with...

20th February 2026 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent downside inflation surprises across Central and Eastern Europe suggest there may be...

18th February 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel GDP (Q4)

The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth in Q4, to 4.0% q/q annualised, was driven by weakness in domestic demand. But we think domestic demand will rebound this year. And provided there isn’t a renewed...

16th February 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026...

26th January 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Current account deficit no concern for Israeli shekel

Israel posted a rare current account deficit in Q3, its first quarterly deficit in a decade, but we don’t think this is a concern and expect the current account to return to surplus in the coming...

6th January 2026 · 4 mins read