Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish pivots, Turkey’s strains While most central banks are weighing whether to hike or hold, currency appreciation allowed the Bank of Israel to cut interest rates this week and the National Bank of Hungary to open the door to... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) restarted its easing cycle at today’s meeting, reducing its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.75%, and we think another cut of the same size is likely in July too. 25th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets rattled in Turkey, stagflation risks in Poland The ruling by a Turkish court which removed the opposition leader from his position has sparked capital outflows and will compound strains in the balance of payments resulting from the energy shock... 22nd May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: Q1 GDP drop keeps door for rate cut open Israel’s economy already appears to have picked up following the war-induced fall in GDP in Q1. But even so, the drop in output last quarter, taken together with the strength of the shekel and weak... 18th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal path, CBRT inflation, shekel strength Announcements from Hungary’s new government, which took office last weekend, suggest that we’re unlikely to see the full details of its plans to reduce the budget deficit until Q3. Until then, the... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s cybersecurity sector and the AI challenge Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response US and Israel strike Iran The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited... 28th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Feb. 26) The Bank of Israel’s (BoI’s) decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today underscores its commitment to a cautious easing cycle despite softer recent inflation data. We continue to expect... 23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
