Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally reshaped the geopolitical environment in the region. Elsewhere, Tunisia is doubling down on using central bank reserves to service external debt alongside outright deficit monetisation. The longer these policies endure, the greater the chances of a disorderly adjustment in the dinar and a sovereign default.