Middle East Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Chart Book Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly Egypt reform progress, Saudi public finances Egypt’s government laid out fresh efforts this week to attract greater foreign investment into the country which also coincided with the first state asset sale in nearly a year. But, unless the... 18th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in April, as an increase in non-food inflation offset another drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate should resume its comedown in... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly All eyes on the CBE, Saudi budget figures The unveiling of Egypt’s austere FY2023/24 Budget and the reinvigorated privatisation drive will help to ease some concern among investors of reform progress. But the critical thing to watch will be... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East Economics Update Saudi economy contracts in Q1, set for a weak 2023 Flash GDP figures showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q1 on the back of OPEC+-agreed oil output cuts, but growth in the non-oil economy remained strong. The “voluntary” oil production... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) April’s PMIs for the region showed that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf states started Q2 on a strong footing. What’s more, there were tentative signs that price pressures may... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East Chart Book IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Inflation (Mar. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 3.0% y/y in February to 2.7% y/y in March as both food and non-food inflation decreased last month. We think that inflation will continue to ease... 13th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East Rapid Response PMIs (Apr. 2023) March’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in non-oil sectors in Qatar and Saudi Arabia continued their good start to the year, whereas in Egypt the near-term pain from higher inflation and a weaker... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
