Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan

The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US...

15th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep. 2025)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 2.3% y/y in August to 2.2% y/y in September, which remains weak by EM standards and, as we outlined in a Focus, we think that inflation will ease...

15th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Egypt heads to Washington

Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of agreeing a long-awaited ceasefire agreement. If it holds, this puts the region on a path to end the war and removes key downside risks to the Middle East’s...

9th October 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing

Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt...

6th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet...

2nd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers

The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal...

2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi forced to step up austerity as low oil prices bite

Saudi Arabia’s 2026 Pre-Budget Statement reaffirmed that the Kingdom’s recent turn to fiscal consolidation is here to stay and, in fact, will be stepped up after the budget deficit for this year is...

30th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP...

26th September 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate

Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a...

25th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s lifting of foreign ownership limits not a gamechanger

Saudi Arabia’s reform push looks set to take another step forward with suggestions that it will lift foreign ownership limits on local equities before the end of this year. While such a move will help...

24th September 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting

Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile...

18th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as...

18th September 2025 · 19 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is...

17th September 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi inflation rebased, headline rate hits two-year high

The rebasing of Saudi Arabia’s inflation data, which came alongside August’s data release, has resulted in only minor changes to the headline inflation readings, but it underlines the shifts in...

15th September 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi foreign investment report, OPEC+ decision

Media reports picked up on data published by Saudi Arabia this week which showed that 2024 was a record year for foreign direct investment inflows. But this didn’t take account of the fact that there...

11th September 2025 · 7 mins read