Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ drama ensues, Saudi-China currency swap

The surprise delay to the OPEC+ meeting to next week has only added to speculation that the slide in oil prices in recent months and the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict could prompt the group to...

23rd November 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi’s Civil Code, Saudi solar & nuclear, Egypt-Israel gas

Saudi Arabia’s new Civil Code should help to remove some of the uncertainty in commercial law and marks another step on the path to raising foreign investment. Meanwhile, a new raft of solar projects...

16th November 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end

The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the...

15th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged down from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.6% y/y in October, the weakest pace of inflation in nearly two years, and we expect that inflation will continue to...

15th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi FDI revisions, Egypt-IMF deal, October’s PMIs

Saudi Arabia’s revised foreign direct investment data paint a far rosier picture than previously, but there is still work to be done to meet the punchy targets of Vision 2030. Elsewhere, Egypt’s...

9th November 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How credible are the region’s currency pegs?

Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies...

9th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Event

Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook

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The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world?

The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China...

7th November 2023 · 14 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup

Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive...

2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2023, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and the non...

31st October 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi Arabia real estate, Gulf deposits in Egypt

Saudi Arabia’s mortgage market continues to struggle and, together with increased residential real estate supply in the Kingdom, is likely to keep property prices subdued for some time. Elsewhere...

26th October 2023 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023)

After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to...

24th October 2023 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation

Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind...

19th October 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year

Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year...

16th October 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

How will the Israel-Gaza conflict affect the rest of MENA?

The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider Middle East and North Africa. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran were to be pulled into the...

12th October 2023 · 8 mins read