Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown

Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing...

19th September 2024 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf?

The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed

Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de...

12th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi between a rock and a hard place on oil policy

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output aggressively in the past two years but this has failed to prevent a slide in the Kingdom’s oil revenues. Officials are facing a tough choice over what to do next and...

11th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s Article IV, Egypt inflation

The recent slide in oil prices has raised the prospect that OPEC+ delays planned increases to output at its meeting next week, but this risks stoking tensions among key members if it means that the...

5th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Aug. 2024)

August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '24)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget

Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things...

15th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. ‘24)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.5% y/y in July, but we expect that the headline rate will ease back over the remainder of this year and potentially fall back below 1% y/y by...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA

Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower...

8th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s batch of PMIs were softer across the board, adding to signs that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf is weakening. Egypt’s PMI also dropped back but, under the hood, there...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response...

1st August 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read