Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran war: assessing the hit to the Gulf economies This Update takes three scenarios for how the conflict in the Middle East could play out and assesses the potential impact on the Gulf economies. In all cases, these economies would probably record... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Middle East conflict: the state of play The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non... 5th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import... 4th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism? The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor... 4th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, OPEC+, Egypt tax plans, Kuwait’s Article IV The US and Iran resumed talks in Geneva today, but the build-up of US forces in the region means that the threat of strikes remains on the table. The associated risk to oil supply may lie behind... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP growth... 23rd February 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, Kuwait’s budget, Saudi inflation, AI in the Gulf Unless Iran makes major concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the US, the threat of US military intervention will rise - particularly given the build-up of forces in the region. Elsewhere... 19th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fiscal consolidation in Saudi: lessons from history The recent announcement of a scaling back of gigaprojects suggests that Saudi Arabia will be following the playbook of previous tightening episodes by focusing on cuts to capital expenditure. This... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt cabinet reshuffle, Saudi Vision 2030 This week’s cabinet reshuffle in Egypt has largely kept the status quo as the government seeks to affirm to the IMF and foreign investors its commitment to macro orthodoxy, whilst changes alongside... 12th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices to cause Saudi bond spreads to widen If oil prices fall back as we expect, Saudi Arabia’s government is likely to run large budget deficits and see a sharper rise in the public debt ratio than is widely anticipated. The strength of the... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran talks, Qatar’s LNG push, Saudi opens up The US and Iran enter negotiations tomorrow, but relations between the two are fragile and there's a high risk that talks break down, which could result in fresh US military strikes on Iran. Elsewhere... 5th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s PMIs from across the region showed that non-oil sectors across much of the Gulf lost momentum against the backdrop of low oil prices and heightened tensions in the region due to the protests... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s two-speed economy to soften in 2026 Saudi Arabia’s economy strengthened over the course of 2025 as the resumption of oil output hikes fuelled growth. But as that boost starts to fade and fiscal consolidation is ramped up against the... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
