Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf energy flows, Egypt’s IMF deal and rate decision Reports this week suggest that crude oil flows from the Gulf have returned to pre-war levels which, if sustained, will boost regional GDP and oil export receipts. But, so long as there is no political... 22nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt’s balance of payments The latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are causing disruption as the Kingdom enters a key season for conferences as well as entertainment and cultural events, setting back the recent recovery in... 15th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of the Houthi attacks on Riyadh The recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, threaten to set back the recovery in the Kingdom’s non-oil economy, even if the damage to the tourism sector proves to be limited. The key... 12th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi and UAE lead recovery in latest Gulf PMI data The whole economy PMIs for September show that the Gulf’s recovery is taking shape but is uneven. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are faring strongly. But recoveries in Kuwait and particularly Qatar appear... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Pre-Budget Statement, Gulf GDP data Saudi Arabia's Pre-Budget Statement for 2027, which projects wider deficits than previously thought, highlights the fiscal challenges facing the Kingdom. The government won’t face any trouble... 1st October 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilience in Gulf credit growth unlikely to last If the Fed hikes interest rates further and oil prices fall back over 2027-28, as we anticipate, the current strength of lending growth in the Gulf is likely to lose steam. That will hold back... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (September '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a return to pre-war energy exports won’t take place... 29th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline restored, Egypt's resilience The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline will be a relief for both global energy markets and the Kingdom's economy. The immediate downside risk to our forecast for a fall in Saudi... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lessons from the pipeline attack; the Fed and commodities The net impact of the recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could even feasibly result in slightly higher oil flows over time. But the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Counting the fiscal cost to the Gulf from the Iran war The disruption to energy flows from the Iran war will cause government budget balances to improve in Oman and the UAE (high prices have more than offset the impact on export volumes). But balances... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions on the closure of the East-West pipeline The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could impact up to 4% of global oil supply and each week of the pipeline’s closure could knock up to 0.3%-pts off Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Uncertainty about... 14th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
