Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-IMF, Tunisia unorthodox policies, Blinken in Riyadh

The economic hit from Egypt’s reforms is prompting officials to reevaluate the timeline for future policy moves under the IMF deal. But given the rise in capital flows from elsewhere, Egypt is better...

24th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown

Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing

The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?

With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short...

17th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS skips on BRICS+ summit but holds fruitful Egypt talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) decision to skip next week’s BRICS+ summit adds to the signs that the Kingdom feels that its shift towards China’s sphere of influence may have gone too...

17th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate rose a touch from 1.6% y/y in August to 1.7% y/y in September, a third consecutive increase and the fastest pace of inflation since February. That said, we think...

15th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps

Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia election, UAE budget, Saudi King’s health

Incumbent Kais Saied won Tunisia's election in an (unsurprising) landslide and his second term will probably see the economy remain on the path towards a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign...

10th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025

Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that...

8th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the...

3rd October 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

War escalates; all eyes on Israel

Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties

Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider...

2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output...

30th September 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

What to make of Saudi Arabia’s oil market plans?

Today’s news that Saudi Arabia will proceed with unwinding its voluntary oil output cuts from December does not change our thinking on the oil market balance; we still expect the market to be in a...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read