Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in April, its joint fastest pace in nearly two years. We think that inflation will hover around the 2.0-2.5% y/y range for much of this...

15th May 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East

Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran...

13th May 2025 · 14 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas

Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip...

9th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf

OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth...

8th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period...

8th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

New (lower) oil price forecasts

Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently...

6th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes

Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended...

2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot

Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But...

1st May 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't...

1st May 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil sector unlikely to sustain strong start

Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a relatively strong start to the year underpinned by its non-oil sector. But while GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output rises, the coinciding slip in oil...

28th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil supply concerns retake the reins

While various tariff-related carveouts have helped to ease concerns about some of the most acute tail-risks facing global oil demand, support for benchmark prices is being eroded by renewed concerns...

25th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate

Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government...

24th April 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The direct impact of Trump’s trade war on the region is likely to be...

16th April 2025 · 0 mins read