Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth

The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024)

Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election

Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence...

23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision

After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC...

22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.6% y/y in April and, while we think that there may be a slight acceleration at the start of Q3, the bigger picture is that inflation in the...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE ups the ante with OPEC, review of April’s PMIs

The UAE has raised its oil production capacity even further in a sign that it wants to raise actual output. But with rumours growing that OPEC+ may extend its current low oil output quotas beyond June...

9th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now)

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject...

2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2024, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that the economy exited recession in Q1 and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of the year – and be a bit stronger than most currently...

1st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, dollarisation in Lebanon

Egypt’s latest privatisation drive appears to have stalled after targets were watered down. The government doesn’t face the same need to secure revenues as it did recently, but privatisation is still...

25th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Iran-Israel tensions, Gulf floods, Egypt’s preliminary budget

The ratcheting up of tensions between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about a broader regional conflict. For now, it seems unlikely that the Gulf states will get drawn in unless there is a serious...

18th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s foreign investment struggles persist

Saudi Arabia has yet to be able to raise foreign direct investment towards its Vision 2030 goals, prompting a turn to the Public Investment Fund (PIF) to prop up investment spending. Unless the...

17th April 2024 · 3 mins read