Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with more oil supply coming online, we think that prices will decline further. Rising oil output will lead to faster GDP growth in the Gulf, although this will mask weakness in non-oil sectors as fiscal policy becomes less supportive.
Elsewhere, external strains in parts of North Africa and the Levant have eased on the back of higher exports – especially in Morocco, driven by tourism and auto output. Not only is this supporting GDP growth but it also provides a better external backdrop for central banks to resume loosening cycles.
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