Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Back to the future The renewed attacks by the US and Iran risk prolonging the Gulf economies' downturns by pushing back recoveries in oil output and in non-oil sectors. On top of this, the risk of disruptions to... 16th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June '26) The US-Iran deal will allow the Gulf economies to begin a recovery. But it will take time for oil production and other sectors, such as tourism, to recover to pre-war levels. Most growth forecasts for... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the... 25th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Inflation pressures, pipelines and railways US President Trump declared this week that he had refrained from restarting strikes on Iran at the behest of the Gulf states in order to give more time for negotiations. But reports that Supreme... 21st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Talks at another impasse as Iran hardens stance on Strait Talks between the US and Iran have reached another impasse and it’s difficult at this stage to see where a breakthrough will come, especially as the Iranian regime appears to be hardening its stance... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
