Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '26)

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will hold back a recovery in the Gulf economies. The downside risks to our forecast for a ~3% contraction in GDP in the region this year appear to be growing. Outside the Gulf, we expect the effects of the Iran war to cause growth to slow. But balance sheet vulnerabilities are mitigated by US support (Jordan) and improvements in policymaking (Egypt).