The Middle East and North Africa
Our Middle East and North Africa coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and regional outlooks for the economies and financial markets across the region. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future economic dynamics.
This service offers in-depth economic analysis of growth, inflation, trade, currency and interest rate trends and independent market forecasts for 12 MENA states: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Qatar, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Bahrain.
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Key Research on Tensions in the Middle East
Israel strikes Iran |
Syria after Assad |
Trump faces a much changed Middle East |
|
The strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict. Despite the tightening oil market, unless there was an effort to close the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian oil export infrastructure is targeted, a jump in the oil price is unlikely and poses a limited risk to global inflation. |
The fall of Syria's President Assad has been warmly received , but a key lesson from the Arab Spring is that hopes for a major shift to democracy are thin. What's more, the geopolitical allegiances in the region are far different than at the height of the Civil War and may cloud the direction of Syria's outlook. |
President Trump may seek to bring the Gulf and other parts of the Middle East back toward the US sphere of influence. But the reproachment between the Gulf and Iran, and the war in Gaza make it a more delicate task than in his first term. |
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Our latest Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa is the place to read all of our updated key calls and view our forecasts for the region. You can also view this data in our interactive Macro Dashboard with historical data and Capital Economics forecasts you need to track.
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Key Regional Forecasts
These are our latest forecasts for GDP growth and inflation across the Middle East and North Africa. For more detail behind these, view our latest Economic Outlook.
GDP and Consumer Prices (% y/y) |
|||||||||||
|
GDP2 |
Consumer Prices2 |
||||||||||
|
Share of World1 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
1.09 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
|
Egypt |
1.15 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
34.0 |
28.0 |
15.5 |
8.8 |
7.5 |
|
UAE |
0.44 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
5.8 |
6.5 |
4.0 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
|
Algeria |
0.43 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
9.3 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
Morocco |
0.20 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.1 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
|
Qatar |
0.18 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
15.0 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
|
Kuwait |
0.13 |
-1.7 |
-2.6 |
2.0 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
|
Oman |
0.11 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
|
Tunisia |
0.09 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
9.3 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
9.5 |
9.0 |
|
Jordan |
0.06 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
|
Bahrain |
0.05 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Lebanon |
0.04 |
-1.0 |
-8.0 |
-0.5 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
221.3 |
45.2 |
13.2 |
8.8 |
8.5 |
|
MENA |
3.97 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
14.3 |
10.0 |
6.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
|
Sources: CEIC, LSEG Data & Analytics, Capital Economics. 1) %, 2024, in PPP terms. 2) % y/y annual average. |
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Featured Economists
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James Swanston
Senior Middle East and North Africa Economist
James is a Senior Economist in our Emerging Markets team at Capital Economics, specialising in coverage of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). James joined Capital Economics in 2017 and has covered MENA since 2019, in which time his research has included deep dives into the debts of Dubai's government related-entities and the risks facing the Egyptian pound. James is frequently quoted in global and local media, including in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Arab News. James holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics and Political Science where his research focused on the historical role of the IMF in Egypt.
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Jason Tuvey
Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Jason Tuvey is our Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist, working closely with William Jackson to oversee our coverage of Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Jason joined Capital Economics in 2012 and has developed a strong track record in that time. He currently produces our day-to-day research on Mexico and, before that, established himself as one of the world’s foremost analysts of Turkey’s economy and financial markets, winning multiple forecast accuracy awards from Refinitiv, Focus Economics and Consensus Economics. Jason regularly engages with clients to deliver our latest insights on developments in the emerging world. Jason’s research has spanned a wide variety of topics, including debt restructuring talks in Sub-Saharan Africa, economic reforms in Saudi Arabia and the implications of unorthodox policymaking in Turkey. Jason regularly presents to clients and has been widely quoted by the world’s leading media organisations, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.