The Middle East and North Africa
Our Middle East and North Africa coverage provides detailed analysis, independent forecasts, and regional outlooks for the economies and financial markets across the region. We offer rapid responses to new data and developments, along with in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future economic dynamics.
This service offers in-depth economic analysis of growth, inflation, trade, currency and interest rate trends and independent market forecasts for 12 MENA states: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Qatar, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, Lebanon, Jordan and Bahrain.
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Our latest Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa is the place to read all of our updated key calls and view our forecasts for the region. You can also view this data in our interactive Macro Dashboard with historical data and Capital Economics forecasts you need to track.
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Key Research on Tensions in the Middle East
The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire |
The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict |
Iran's new president unlikely to fix economy's |
|
The global risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal are asymmetric. Oil prices may not change too much, but it could prompt OPEC+ to extend current levels of production, weighing on GCC economic growth this year. However, a collapse of talks would make an escalation of the conflict more likely, which would raise the risk of a renewed surge in oil prices that would underpin higher inflation and fewer rate cuts in DMs. |
Further trading of rocket strikes between Hezbollah and Israel are threatening tensions to boil over, leaving Lebanon at a real risk of being drawn into the war. But there's upside risks for the global economy if Iran increases its involvement and effects the region's oil supply. |
Despite the appointment of President Pezeshkian - a reformer - as Iran's new president, power still sits with Ayatollah Khamenei, the IRGC, and other bodies. This is likely to mean the status quo of economic and foreign policy remains for now. |
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Key Regional Forecasts
|
GDP & and Consumer Prices |
|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GDP2 |
Consumer Prices2 |
||||||||||
|
Share of World1 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
|
Saudi Arabia |
1.3 |
7.5 |
-0.8 |
1.3 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
|
Egypt |
1.0 |
4.2 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
14.0 |
34.0 |
28.0 |
8.5 |
6.0 |
|
UAE |
0.5 |
7.9 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
Algeria |
0.4 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
9.3 |
9.3 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
Morocco |
0.2 |
1.3 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
|
Qatar |
0.2 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
11.5 |
5.0 |
3.0 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
|
Kuwait |
0.2 |
6.1 |
-1.8 |
-1.5 |
2.8 |
6.0 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Oman |
0.2 |
9.6 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Tunisia |
0.1 |
2.6 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
8.6 |
9.3 |
6.8 |
5.3 |
4.0 |
|
Jordan |
0.1 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
|
Bahrain |
0.1 |
4.9 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
-0.3 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Lebanon |
0.01 |
-6.8 |
-1.5 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
171.2 |
221.3 |
29.5 |
8.0 |
3.5 |
|
MENA3 |
4.1 |
5.8 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
6.8 |
11.1 |
8.5 |
3.4 |
2.6 |
|
Sources: CEIC, Refinitiv, Capital Economics. 1) %, 2023, in PPP terms. 2) % y/y annual average. 3) Regional inflation excludes Lebanon. |
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All Middle East & North Africa Coverage
Featured Economists
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James Swanston
Middle East and North Africa Economist
James is an Economist in our Emerging Markets team at Capital Economics, specialising in coverage of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). James joined Capital Economics in 2017 and has covered MENA since 2019, in which time his research has included deep dives into the debts of Dubai's government related-entities and the risks facing the Egyptian pound. James is frequently quoted in global and local media, including in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Arab News. James holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics and Political Science where his research focused on the historical role of the IMF in Egypt.
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Jason Tuvey
Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist
Jason Tuvey is our Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist, working closely with William Jackson to oversee our coverage of Emerging Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Jason joined Capital Economics in 2012 and has developed a strong track record in that time. He currently produces our day-to-day research on Mexico and, before that, established himself as one of the world’s foremost analysts of Turkey’s economy and financial markets, winning multiple forecast accuracy awards from Refinitiv, Focus Economics and Consensus Economics. Jason regularly engages with clients to deliver our latest insights on developments in the emerging world. Jason’s research has spanned a wide variety of topics, including debt restructuring talks in Sub-Saharan Africa, economic reforms in Saudi Arabia and the implications of unorthodox policymaking in Turkey. Jason regularly presents to clients and has been widely quoted by the world’s leading media organisations, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.