Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil traders still unsure; the US-yen intervention & gold While the progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman have raised hopes of a future recovery of oil exports from the Middle East, Iran's clear desires to exert control over the Strait is a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Iran’s Hormuz proposals muddy the waters Even if Iran’s proposed restrictions on US, Israeli, and other “hostile” ships using the Strait of Hormuz are passed into law, they are unlikely to be a major obstacle to energy flows given that most... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Where the upside risks lie for EU natural gas prices The slow summer rebuild of natural gas storage in the EU means that the price of the TTF benchmark will remain close to current levels over the winter, even if LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz... 6th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Oil and natural gas markets remain sensitive to developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If a deal is reached, we wouldn’t expect energy prices to collapse immediately as it will likely take... 5th August 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Key factors to watch if/when the Strait re-reopens With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to press ahead; oil traders look on bright side of life OPEC+ looks set to agree on another hike in output quotas this weekend. But the resetting of members’ baseline quotas promises to bring internal tensions and the erosion of cohesion within the group... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: lower US tariffs, but China will be the key partner Sub-Saharan Africa has come out of the latest round of US tariffs in a better position relative both to last year and to many other EMs. That will provide opportunities for some countries. But even so... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Our thoughts on oil’s paper-physical market disconnect Oil prices have fallen back on net this week even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, which has prompted questions about the disconnect between paper and physical... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s drone campaign adds to energy shock Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s energy sector are squeezing Russia economically and politically but also putting additional upwards pressure on global energy prices. Ukraine would be loath to end... 24th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A tale of two seas and the global oil market Brent crude prices crossed $100pb this week on the back of escalating supply risks in the Middle East and from Russia. While the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia may only have a limited impact on... 24th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi nuclear deal, Trump and Iran up the ante The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties with the Gulf states, which have been fraying due to the Iran war. The conflict itself has escalated... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China can’t bail out the global oil market forever The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Venezuela not yet eating Canada’s oil lunch The renewed rise in oil prices is positive news for Canada’s oil sector, but the latest US import data highlight the longer-term risks from greater Venezuelan production. 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and Nigeria rate meetings, Angola’s large cut South Africa’s central bank is likely to hike rates again next week, but with inflation stabilising and underlying pressures relatively soft, we think this will be the last in the cycle. Nigeria... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
