Commodities Weekly All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025 Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that... 8th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique’s election, SA surveys, Ghana debt deal Mozambicans head to the polls on Wednesday with the ruling Fremilo party widely expected to hold on to power. The elections come amid growing signals that key gas projects, which are vital to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Risks to oil supply take centre stage With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Oil and current account risks, RBI preview If oil prices were to spike considerably higher as a result of the escalating conflict in the Middle East it would expose an age-old vulnerability in India's external position. But we think the risks... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War escalates; all eyes on Israel Global headlines this week have been dominated by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and attention is now focussed on Israel and the scale and nature of its response to Iran’s retaliatory... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy... 2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider... 2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '24) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil output... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal... 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read