Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil and US equities no longer have much of a MoU Today’s surge in oil prices, prompted by Donald Trump’s declaration that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran is “over”, has taken a toll on the S&P 500. Our sense, though, is... 8th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update US-Iran strikes are a reminder of upside risks to prices The latest exchange of military strikes in the Middle East supports our view that oil prices will be volatile over the coming months, and will face bouts of upward pressure. That said, under the... 8th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Deal or no deal, trade with the US will remain seismic The lack of agreement to renew CUSMA will change little for trade with the US in the near term. And, even if the US were to withdraw, deep historical integration and lower tariffs post-IEEPA make it... 3rd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Gasoline prices still pumped up; China LNG buying heats up While President Trump has accused gasoline retailers of price gouging and called for lower prices, disruptions to global refining activity – particularly in Russia – may prevent gasoline prices from... 3rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic, Saudi’s fiscal challenge, Morocco GDP Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to pick up and contributed to a further dip in oil prices over the past week, which feeds into our view that Saudi Arabia won't provide significant... 2nd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen even as fiscal strains linger Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to accelerate over the coming years and most of our growth forecasts lie above the consensus. At the same time, the backdrop of low inflation (by the region’s... 29th June 2026 · 19 mins read
China Economics Weekly China relaxing restrictions on refined fuel exports China's government will reportedly ease its restrictions on refined fuel exports further next month. That should be reflected in increased refinery output, but it will only support China's crude oil... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly From bad to worse for gold; Iraq the next to leave OPEC? Gold has been caught up in the souring of risk sentiment towards AI-related assets, and its strengthening correlation with equities is one reason why we think gold prices have further to fall in the... 26th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy prices normalising; digital euro coming (in 2029) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this week the Bank would need to raise interest rates further, in part because energy prices were still “measurably higher” than before the Iran war... 26th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the... 25th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Outlook Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while... 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update No more ECB rate hikes? We have revised down our forecasts for oil and gas prices in light of developments in the Iran war and, as a result, are forecasting slightly lower inflation than we’d previously assumed. Our new base... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
