Event

Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely?

6th May 2026, 2:00PM BST

There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover.

Commodities Weekly

UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news...

1st May 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026)

The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher...

30th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC minus, US blockade

The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz...

30th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Is the energy shock supercharging the Chinese export boom?

12th May 2026, 9:00AM BST

China is widely seen as a key “winner” of the Iran conflict–driven energy shock, thanks in part to its dominance in green tech manufacturing. But how big is the upside?

Commodities Update

Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit

This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online...

28th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: The UAE leaves OPEC – What this means for global oil and the group’s future

29th April 2026, 9:00AM BST

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC has caught some in the market off guard and raised important questions about the group’s future.

Commodities Rapid Response

UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge

28th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires

Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the...

24th April 2026 · 4 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB will not rush into rate hikes

The ECB is not going to raise its interest rates next week and policymakers are likely to say they will need to see more evidence of second-round effects on inflation before doing do. We think the...

23rd April 2026 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround

The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous...

22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war

Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of...

17th April 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How serious is the threat of energy shortages?

The consequences of the Iran war for the UK economy are more about higher energy prices than energy shortages. That said, 12% of the UK's diesel imports and 63% of its jet fuel imports come from the...

17th April 2026 · 11 mins read