Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026) If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting... 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update Five factors to watch as the Strait of Hormuz reopens There is a lot of uncertainty about how the energy market and prices will evolve once an agreement is officially signed between the US and Iran. This Update highlights five key factors to watch in... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2026) Euro-zone industrial production held up well in the first two months of the Iran war, and the recent news on the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by the region’s manufacturers. But energy prices are... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the oil market’s “tipping point” Amidst frequent talk of an impending “tipping point” in the global oil market, this Update answers five key questions on the topic, including the implications for prices. In short, if the pace of... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Central bank goldbugs; Godzilla El Niño Gold has overtaken US Treasuries in accounting for the largest share of foreign reserves held be central banks, according to an ECB report, underlining just how strong central banks' appetite for gold... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Peace talks, trade and capital flows Talks between the US and Iran have provided a glimmer of hope that global energy markets could begin to normalise. But the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have already inflicted heavy... 28th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to... 27th May 2026 · 18 mins read
