Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Oil prices, Morocco inflation-targeting, Saudi inflation

Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 this week, and we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major concern for the Gulf economies' balance sheets, but it...

18th December 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Key Commodity themes to watch in 2026

Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026.

18th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices

The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least...

17th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25)

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

16th December 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Record-high metals prices to fall back in 2026

The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver...

15th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

15th December 2025 · 19 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Surge in silver prices will go into reverse next year

While some analysts have pinned the record-breaking silver rally on structural forces, we think the scale and speed of price increases suggest that market exuberance spilling over from the gold rally...

12th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Copper hits all time high but we expect prices to ease lower

The rally in copper prices to an all-time high has its roots in rising supply concerns, particularly following the announcement by a group of Chinese smelters that they intend to cut output by 10% in...

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 2025)

Copper’s supply crunch masks weakening demand The rally in copper, which has driven prices to all-time nominal highs, has its roots in supply concerns, which are likely to persist into 2026. But we...

5th December 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Strengthening growth and shifting alignments

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s...

4th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Commodities Update

New Simandou supply will sink iron ore prices

Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the ramp-up in iron ore supply from the Simandou mine in Guinea is a key driver of our below-consensus view that iron ore prices will fall sharply over the...

2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Growth prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa look bright, with inflation low or falling for most and a monetary easing cycle well under way, with many central banks likely to cut rates deeper than most...

28th November 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Fall in EU natural gas prices has further to run

The recent fall in the EU natural gas benchmark to below €30 per MWh has its roots in a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but we are sceptical that any agreement would have much direct...

28th November 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Beef and edible oils the exceptions to falling food prices

While most agriculturals prices – and food price inflation – will decline alongside crude oil prices next year, structural supply headwinds will keep the prices of edible oils and beef elevated.

24th November 2025 · 3 mins read