Commodities Weekly Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The higher gold goes, the harder it could fall It’s notoriously hard to objectively value gold, and it’s plausible that the rapid ascent in gold prices could reflect a paradigm shift in demand. In fact, if gold prices were to follow the trajectory... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming in the wake of recent protests in the country, raise the chances of some form of regime change which could eventually pave the way for Iran’s possible... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How to make sense of the industrial metals rally The mayhem in precious metals markets has captured the majority of headlines, but several industrial metals prices have increased by a lot too. We are sceptical that near-term fundamentals justify... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 27th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Arctic strikes back? In a week dominated by President Trump’s pursuit of Greenland, it is perhaps ironic that an anticipated blast of cold air from the Arctic has sent the price of natural gas in the US soaring. Henry Hub... 23rd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of fraying Saudi-UAE ties Frictions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia have broken out into the open in the last few weeks. But even if the situation were to escalate, the near-term economic impact would probably be limited. If... 22nd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to keep falling back, but risks still brewing Coffee prices have fallen back from their record highs, and overall, we think that they will edge lower over the course of the year. That said, several risks could keep coffee prices elevated by... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Scrap recycling won’t ease metals supply woes yet The recycling of scrap metals and minerals has been put forward as a potential solution to high metals prices and the west’s push towards self-sufficiency, while also offering a promising step towards... 13th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents... 12th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Greenland’s mineral potential; metal price mayhem Despite Greenland’s undoubted resource potential, the significant technical challenges and high costs associated operating on the island will surely limit the potential for sizeable production... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Investors prepare for Venezuelan oil Although Venezuela is well known for having vast oil reserves, it is likely to require a number of years and significant investment to meaningfully increase the... 8th January 2026 · 1 min read
