Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response US and Israel strike Iran The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited... 28th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ poised to hike output again; cocoa craziness is over? Looking ahead to OPEC+’s meeting this weekend, the group seems poised to resume increasing its output quotas by 137,000 bpd in April. If geopolitical risk disperses, we think that up to $10pb of the... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran, OPEC+, Egypt tax plans, Kuwait’s Article IV The US and Iran resumed talks in Geneva today, but the build-up of US forces in the region means that the threat of strikes remains on the table. The associated risk to oil supply may lie behind... 26th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The continued acceleration in Australia’s underlying inflation at the start of the year vindicates the... 25th February 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP growth... 23rd February 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil: geopolitics is the name of the game; what to make of it? Oil prices have firmly been in the grips of a geopolitical maelstrom this week, as tensions between the US and Iran have escalated once more. The price of Brent crude has risen by around 5% on the... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Carbon capture only a stopgap for fossil fuel emissions Carbon capture technologies are often put forward as a solution to lowering emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, but given the high costs involved, their uptake has been slow. This Update addresses... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed & Iran war risks threaten Treasuries The threats are mounting to US Treasuries, and we think yields will rise over the rest of the year. 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU carbon market rocked by politics; volatile “safe havens” EU carbon prices fell sharply this week on the back of calls by political and industry leaders to water down the EU Emissions Trading System. As we’ve highlighted before, this is a risk that could... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Signs of a gold bubble in China point to higher volatility The growing use of leverage and futures trading to gain exposure to gold in China suggests that the recent increase in Chinese gold demand is more consistent with a speculative bubble inflating rather... 12th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Sizing up the oil risk premium Estimating the oil market risk premium is more art than science, but our sense is that it is currently in the region of $5-8pb. Looking ahead, were the US to conduct limited military strikes against... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) Geopolitical risk and speculation lifting prices for now The sharp rise and fall in precious metals prices, which appeared to be driven somewhat by leveraged investors, has all the hallmarks of a... 5th February 2026 · 1 min read
