Global Inflation Watch Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to... 27th May 2026 · 18 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly “Waiving” goodbye to Russian sanctions? The US sanctions waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil has helped, at the margin, cushion the impact of lost supply from the Middle East so far. Looking ahead, given that European natural gas... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Inflation pressures, pipelines and railways US President Trump declared this week that he had refrained from restarting strikes on Iran at the behest of the Gulf states in order to give more time for negotiations. But reports that Supreme... 21st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The tricky task of tracking oil demand If anybody hoped that the latest monthly reports from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC would provide clarity about how much oil demand has fallen since the start of the Iran war, they would have sadly been... 15th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Talks at another impasse as Iran hardens stance on Strait Talks between the US and Iran have reached another impasse and it’s difficult at this stage to see where a breakthrough will come, especially as the Iranian regime appears to be hardening its stance... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market is approaching a tipping point A resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz this month, as assumed in our baseline scenario, could limit the extent of inventory draws and lead to prices falling back by end-26. But if the... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US energy majors not itching to ramp up oil production The combination of an increased focus on capital discipline among major oil firms, and a reduction in the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in recent years, will limit the extent and pace of any... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
