Commodities Update

What do price ratios tell us about the value of gold?

The lack of an income stream makes it notoriously hard to value gold objectively. And while the price of gold relative to other assets – such as silver, oil and equities – is often used to assess the...

21st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil

We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets.

20th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Easing supply risks sharpens focus on soft oil demand

Despite the latest tariff rollback, commodity demand is still set to soften this year. In oil markets, with supply set to rise as OPEC+ brings back barrels more quickly than first planned, the risks...

16th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Insecurity in Nigeria: will Tinubu fix it?

Nigeria’s long-running security challenges have brought obvious human costs, and they have also contributed to the economy’s woes by hurting output in the agriculture and oil sectors, weakening demand...

15th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Gold prices to take a breather before the next leg up

After an extraordinary rally in gold prices, the recent pullback naturally raises the question of where gold prices may be headed next. In our view, the rest of this year will prove more challenging...

15th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East

Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran...

13th May 2025 · 14 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow

Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to...

9th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas

Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip...

9th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf

OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth...

8th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (May 2025)

OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in...

8th May 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period...

8th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia's soaring gold exports won’t prevent mining demise

Around half of the recent surge in gold exports reflects soaring prices. While the latter may encourage mining firms to expand output, it will probably take years for gold production to return to its...

8th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

New (lower) oil price forecasts

Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently...

6th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan?

This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We...

2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes

Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended...

2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read