Commodities Outlook

Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut

Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while...

24th June 2026 · 16 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come

The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a...

23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2026)

The ceasefire has pushed us closer to our baseline scenario in which a return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz limits the economic damage from the conflict and allows global inflation to...

22nd June 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia’s fuel squeeze raises the cost of war

Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is becoming a more sustained macroeconomic problem for Moscow. The disruption to refineries is squeezing fuel supply, adding to...

19th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027

Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an...

19th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

There are no quick fixes for bypassing the Strait

Reports that the UAE could have another oil pipeline up and running in 2027 have bolstered hopes of a rapid redrawing of the energy map in the Middle East which would negate Iran’s stranglehold over...

18th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2026)

If it holds, the US-Iran agreement to re-open the Strait of Hormuz will help to drive a recovery in the Gulf economies and support energy-importing EMs, particularly in Asia. Still, the lasting...

16th June 2026 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus

The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf

The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –...

16th June 2026 · 16 mins read

Commodities Update

Five factors to watch as the Strait of Hormuz reopens

There is a lot of uncertainty about how the energy market and prices will evolve once an agreement is officially signed between the US and Iran. This Update highlights five key factors to watch in...

15th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (April 2026)

Euro-zone industrial production held up well in the first two months of the Iran war, and the recent news on the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by the region’s manufacturers. But energy prices are...

15th June 2026 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine

The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo...

12th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

A pulse check on the oil market

The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well...

10th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed

There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year.

9th June 2026 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Five key questions on the oil market’s “tipping point”

Amidst frequent talk of an impending “tipping point” in the global oil market, this Update answers five key questions on the topic, including the implications for prices. In short, if the pace of...

9th June 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026)

Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline...

5th June 2026 · 1 min read