Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2026)

The ceasefire has pushed us closer to our baseline scenario in which a return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz limits the economic damage from the conflict and allows global inflation to ease back. Most central banks are now under a bit less pressure to raise interest rates, and we think that (further) hikes can be avoided across most of Europe. Emerging market central banks that might otherwise have raised interest rates to defend their currencies or to prevent inflation expectations from surging might also now rethink. However, the strength of recent economic and labour market data from the US seems likely to prompt rate hikes while the ongoing tightness of Japan’s labour market suggests that the BoJ’s work is not done.