Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread would normalise if Iran conflict ends The conflict in Iran has distorted the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. But if the recently agreed ceasefire holds and oil starts flowing more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, we... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Can critical minerals rescue Australia’s mining sector? The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has cast a spotlight on the global reliance on fossil fuels and triggered calls for a more aggressive adoption of renewable energy. For Australia, the crisis... 7th April 2026 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update The indirect inflation effects of higher energy prices Beyond their direct effects on consumer prices of fuels and piped gas, higher crude oil and natural gas prices will prompt firms to pass on higher fuel costs to consumers, boosting the prices of non... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Iran conflict impact extends beyond energy commodities The risks to commodity prices from the conflict in the Middle East extend beyond oil and natural gas with aluminium plants in the Gulf sustaining damage. That could keep aluminium prices higher than... 2nd April 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Q&A: the oil supply chain from the Middle East This Update considers the broader implications of the Middle East war on the crude oil and petroleum product supply chain from the Middle East onwards. At the very end of the supply chain, Oceania and... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Certainty and conviction in short supply among energy execs The latest Dallas Fed survey suggests that US energy executives are cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook, but it also underlines how the lack of certainty is complicating investment... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fall in gold prices has further to run Weaker structural demand for gold left prices vulnerable to a pick-up in real yields and reduced risk appetite on the back of the conflict in Iran. But even if the conflict were to de-escalate soon... 25th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update What to know on energy markets & demand destruction With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back in escalation mode Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an... 23rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy shortages rather than prices the imminent threat for India Regulated prices insulate consumers in India from surges in global energy prices but they are no protection against – and, indeed, they contribute to – shortages of fuels and related products. We’ve... 20th March 2026 · 5 mins read
