Chief Economist's Note FOMO, not fundamentals, drives gold and undermines the ‘debasement’ story The pullback in gold prices over the past week shouldn’t have come as a surprise. The yellow metal has been on such an extraordinary tear this year that it had become even more unmoored from any... 27th October 2025
Commodities Weekly Market scepticism over fresh sanctions on Russian oil While the threat of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers drove crude prices up by ~8% this week, market participants appear to be treating the risk with a degree of scepticism. That leaves the... 24th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities & the tariff shock six months on Six months on from the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff agenda, the direct effects on commodity markets have been contained to higher US price premiums for steel and aluminium. That said... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update EU’s Russian energy ban formalises shift in supply In light of today’s confirmation that the EU will completely phase out Russian LNG and pipeline natural gas imports by end-2026 and September 2027, respectively, this is an updated version of an... 20th October 2025 (Updated 26th January 2026) · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil glut is set to come onshore; precious metals still rallying The rapid build-up in oil stocks on water suggests that the full impact of previous OPEC+ output increases is yet to be felt and an oil glut may materialise in the coming months. Given that OPEC+ will... 17th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Odinga’s passing, oil prices drop, Nigeria inflation The passing this week of Raila Odinga, a prominent politician in Kenya, is likely to result in his party being less committed to the governing alliance with President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone food inflation should fall next year Food inflation in the euro-zone has picked up this year but we think that it will fall back in 2026. This would reinforce the disinflation that we expect from lower energy prices and slower wage... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally... 16th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal tightening to drive growth slowdown in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 15th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Monitoring the return of La Niña The return of La Niña conditions could potentially affect agricultural production in key exporting regions. However, if expectations for a weak and short episode prove accurate, the broader impact on... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gold rally flatters Turkey’s FX reserves The gold price rally has inflated the Turkish central bank’s foreign assets by $30bn this year, strengthening Turkey’s external position but creating an illusion of progress in the rebalancing process... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
