Commodities Update Gold hits $4,000: where to from here? Given that “FOMO” appears to be creeping into the gold market, it has become even harder to objectively value gold. In our view, gold prices seem likely to grind higher in nominal terms over the next... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Drone strikes, Russia’s oil sector & the upside risk to oil The oil market has largely shrugged off the damage from Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure so far. That said, the damage to Russian refinery and export capacity so far, and... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A pivotal OPEC+ meeting?; soybeans as bargaining chips Speculation has mounted that OPEC+ is considering a super-sized increase to output quotas at this weekend’s meeting, which has weighed heavily on oil prices. Irrespective of whether OPEC+ opts for an... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China’s iron ore extortion won’t succeed China’s strong reliance on Australian iron ore means that its recent ban of imports from one of Australia’s mining giants will at best result in minor concessions. The bigger picture though is that... 3rd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet... 2nd October 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economic Outlook US leads, others lag, in uneven global economy The global economy will grow by a solid yet unspectacular 3% in 2026-27, but the sources of growth are becoming increasingly unbalanced. The US will be the best performing major advanced economy, as... 2nd October 2025 · 45 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly The changing face of “climate leadership” If anyone was still confused about President Trump’s position on green policies, his description of climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world” at the UN General Assembly... 30th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP... 26th September 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Looser monetary policy, stronger growth Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 26th September 2025 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Gold prices to buck the downbeat trend The most acute geopolitical and tariff-related distortion in commodity markets has eased, leaving fundamentals more firmly in the driver’s seat going forward. While the Russia-Ukraine war still... 24th September 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed rate cuts won’t be a major influence on commodity prices From a commodity market perspective, the fact that the US Fed is now cutting rates again would usually, all else equal, be expected to boost prices. However, weak market fundamentals and the extent of... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as... 18th September 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Focus How vulnerable are EU natural gas supplies? Although Europe’s natural gas supply is now more diverse than before the energy crisis, the fact that most of its gas is imported means it is still exposed to geopolitical and infrastructure-related... 18th September 2025 · 16 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market to feel the weight of rising inventories Low OECD commercial oil inventories have so far provided OPEC+ some cover to raise output, but we suspect that a softening in global demand and increases in OPEC+ supply will lead to commercial oil... 16th September 2025 · 5 mins read
