Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation to fall below 2% soon Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-US tensions, Brazil’s rare earths, Chile votes A military engagement between the US and Venezuela might push oil prices higher (although we suspect the move would be limited), lead to renewed migration outflows and harden pro- or anti-US stances... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Will the Orinoco (oil) flow? Nicolás Maduro has probably never heard of Enya, but he will nonetheless be hoping that the US naval build-up in the Caribbean simply sails away. Although a US military engagement with Venezuela could... 14th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Delays to US LNG won’t prevent gas prices from falling A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However... 12th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Brazil become a major rare earths player? Brazil has the second largest rare earth deposits on the planet but negligible production. Interest in rare earth mining in Brazil has surged in the past couple of years, although it will take time... 10th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing pain for US grains; is OPEC+ changing its tune again? Although China announced the resumption of its purchases of US wheat this week, we doubt that this will be enough to buck the downwards trend in wheat prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to pause any... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE keeps up Gulf AI momentum, Qatar-Egypt deal AI-related investments in the UAE this week add to signs that the US is using access to AI technologies to take the Gulf economies away from China’s sphere of influence. It may also reflect the... 6th November 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: Market narratives under pressure – where next for prices? 20th November 2025, 3:00PM GMT OPEC+ on pause. Gold off the boil. Copper at record highs. Cocoa and sugar prices slumping.
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Plenty of oil on water; revising down our gold forecast While the fallout from US sanctions on Russian oil majors has yet to manifest in the data, Russian seaborne oil exports are strong, and a wider... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update De-risking EU supply chains will be a slow process The EU has prioritised becoming more self-sufficient in the production of critical raw materials. While it is making progress, it is likely to remain heavily dependent on China and China-aligned... 5th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly A false dawn for copper? Soybeans deal not a gamechanger The positive mood music surrounding cooling US-China trade tensions has supported a handful of commodity prices, including copper and soybeans. Although copper prices reached an all-time high this... 31st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2025, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 1.4% q/q in Q3 according to this morning flash estimate, which translated into a pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate from 3.9% in Q2 to 5.0% - the fastest pace... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
