Commodities Update

Venezuela’s vast energy potential to remain untapped

Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential...

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

Will food inflation fall in DMS next year?

Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower...

22nd December 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitics and the oil glut, and what next for the metals melt-up?

14th January 2026, 3:00PM GMT

What could protests in Iran mean for crude prices? Is Venezuelan oil output about to surge? Will gold (and silver) continue selling at record high prices?

Commodities Weekly

Taking stock, and looking ahead

As 2025 draws to a close, our view that energy prices would fall has proved pleasingly accurate, with the price of Brent crude currently exactly in line with our long-standing forecast of $60pb and...

19th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Lobito rail project, oil prices

Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to...

19th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Muddling through

The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will...

18th December 2025 · 45 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Oil prices, Morocco inflation-targeting, Saudi inflation

Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 this week, and we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major concern for the Gulf economies' balance sheets, but it...

18th December 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Update

Key Commodity themes to watch in 2026

Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026.

18th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Venezuela blockade poses limited upside to oil prices

The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least...

17th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25)

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

16th December 2025 · 0 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Record-high metals prices to fall back in 2026

The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver...

15th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

SSA set for its strongest growth streak in over a decade

The macroeconomic backdrop has turned increasingly favourable and we expect Sub-Saharan Africa to enter its strongest period of growth in the coming years since the early 2010s. Our forecasts for most...

15th December 2025 · 19 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Surge in silver prices will go into reverse next year

While some analysts have pinned the record-breaking silver rally on structural forces, we think the scale and speed of price increases suggest that market exuberance spilling over from the gold rally...

12th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Copper hits all time high but we expect prices to ease lower

The rally in copper prices to an all-time high has its roots in rising supply concerns, particularly following the announcement by a group of Chinese smelters that they intend to cut output by 10% in...

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read