Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Talks at another impasse as Iran hardens stance on Strait Talks between the US and Iran have reached another impasse and it’s difficult at this stage to see where a breakthrough will come, especially as the Iranian regime appears to be hardening its stance... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update The oil market is approaching a tipping point A resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz this month, as assumed in our baseline scenario, could limit the extent of inventory draws and lead to prices falling back by end-26. But if the... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US energy majors not itching to ramp up oil production The combination of an increased focus on capital discipline among major oil firms, and a reduction in the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in recent years, will limit the extent and pace of any... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dangote refinery helping Nigeria weather supply shock The Dangote oil refinery has materially improved Nigeria’s energy security, leaving it better insulated from oil price shocks than before. Nigeria is not immune from the inflationary pressures from... 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market has been scarred by the supply shock While an agreement between the US and Iran to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for another leg down in oil prices, supply conditions could remain tight for several months while... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil pivots towards rare earth nationalism A bill approved by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies this week tackles some of the key impediments to (currently minimal) rare earths extraction. However, the bill gives the government significant control... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be... 6th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026) The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC minus, US blockade The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online... 28th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
