Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the... 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly How serious is the threat of energy shortages? The consequences of the Iran war for the UK economy are more about higher energy prices than energy shortages. That said, 12% of the UK's diesel imports and 63% of its jet fuel imports come from the... 17th April 2026 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Oil: what alternatives are there to the Strait of Hormuz? Alternative export routes – pipelines and other terminals that bypass the Strait of Hormuz – are operating at close to full capacity, diverting around 4m bpd of oil exports. In total, that’s... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) It is early days into this ceasefire and there is huge uncertainty around whether it holds and, if it doesn’t, what it means for future negotiations and strikes on energy facilities. For what it’s... 10th April 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Unpicking the energy market implications of the ceasefire Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and the fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia set to benefit from soaring EV sales While China is the key beneficiary of the recent surge in sales of electric vehicles in Australia and elsewhere, Australia will ultimately benefit from stronger demand for lithium as well. Meanwhile... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
