Commodities Update

Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets

Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new...

12th February 2025 · 0 mins read

China Economics Update

China adds to export controls in a bid to pressure US

China added five critical minerals to its export control list last week but stopped short of banning their sale. The move was intended as a warning to the Trump administration and to increase China’s...

12th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s economy set for a modest acceleration

Saudi Arabia’s economic growth will accelerate this year as the Kingdom starts to unwind oil production cuts from April. But while the Kingdom’s non-oil sector started the year on a strong footing...

11th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025)

Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Frothy coffee?; EU gas woe; "Max pressure", little impact

While the steady upward grind in EU natural gas prices has been less spectacular than the recent hockey stick-shaped surge in the price of arabica coffee beans, the doubling in EU gas prices since...

7th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Trump, tariffs and the commodities markets impact

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Tariffs on energy suppliers. Tariffs on metals suppliers. A push to end the Ukraine war. A National Energy Emergency. Less than one month in. 

Event

Drop-In: What next for oil prices?

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We’d been warning for months about the supply risks to oil prices, so Saturday's OPEC+ decision to add 410,000 barrels per day from June wasn't surprising in that sense.

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Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question

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Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to

Commodities Update

Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium

A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly...

6th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump muddles the US’s relations with MENA

President Trump’s comments on Gaza risk straining relations with the Gulf and will work against his aim of expanding the Abraham Accords to include a normalisation of Saudi-Israel relations. Meanwhile...

6th February 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous

Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its...

6th February 2025 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Solar take-up in Saudi will be felt in global oil markets

The renewable rollout in Saudi Arabia is set to accelerate on the back of cheap solar panel imports from China. Given that Saudi Arabia is one of a few countries that directly burns crude oil for...

5th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Japan’s rice inflation will plunge this year

The largest increase in rice prices on record has provided a sizeable boost to inflation in recent months but we expect rice inflation to slow sharply this year. While our forecast is a 0.6%-pt...

5th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Tracking the knock-on effects of US tariffs on oil

The fact that the US is highly dependent on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico has (so far at least) not precluded oil from the threat of President Trump’s tariffs. Against this backdrop, our...

4th February 2025 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: SA’s SOE “tough love”, Nigeria fuel imports, USAID

South African SOEs have had a hard week, with demands for a bailout of Transnet being rebuffed and Eskom getting a smaller electricity price hike than it asked for. But perhaps the more important...

31st January 2025 · 5 mins read