Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening terms of trade and raising inflation. We’ve lowered our growth forecasts in most countries by 0.3-0.5%-pts this year. Turkey is one of the most vulnerable, although the recent fall in oil prices probably gives the central bank space to refrain from tightening monetary policy further at its meeting tomorrow. Russia is the key beneficiary from higher energy prices, although with most of the windfall likely to be saved rather than spent, the resulting boost to GDP growth will be muted.
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