Event North America drop-in: What do the midterms mean for Trump’s agenda? 4th November 2026, 3:00PM GMT The potential for a divided government from January has raised question marks over President Trump’s ability to continue to carry out his bold policy agenda. Join our North America team at 3pm GMT...
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s comeback, Chile’s hawks Lula’s shock election victory led to dramatic market moves and he has done little since to reassure investors. Our working assumption is that he will adopt a more conservative fiscal stance in 2027... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Political deadlock in Israel, CEE tightening in focus Israel’s election this week delivered no clear winner. While political uncertainty won’t have much bearing on the country’s security strategy or near-term economic outlook, it makes it less likely... 30th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s election points to political limbo The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t... 28th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: South Africa's local election results and unpacking the outlook for Africa 5th November 2026, 1:00PM GMT Join our Africa team, on Thursday 5th November, as they digest the preliminary results from South Africa's local elections and what they mean for the country's political and policy
Africa Economics Update What to expect from South Africa’s local elections South Africa’s municipal elections next week are set to deliver another setback for the African National Congress (ANC), with the Democratic Alliance (DA) likely to make gains. We think fears about... 27th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s shock victory to cause Brazilian markets to tumble Lula’s surprise win in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election will dash hopes for reforms that would improve the public finances and strengthen growth prospects. A sharp fall in the real... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2026) Growth in the region appears to have weakened sharply in Q3 and, if anything, the risks to our below-consensus forecasts may now lie to the downside. High inflation across the region limits the extent... 20th October 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s election: what it means for the macro outlook lsrael’s upcoming election is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s near-term growth outlook or fiscal trajectory, but it will have significant medium-term implications. An opposition-led... 15th October 2026 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Flávio’s strong election showing to boost Brazil’s markets Flávio Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected performance in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election is likely to boost the real and equities later today, perhaps by 3-5%, and lead to a drop in... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
