Latin America Economic Outlook

Diverging rate paths

Latin America has been resilient to the energy shock but other headwinds are likely to hold back regional growth to around 2% over the coming years, making it the worst-performing EM region. The...

18th June 2026 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Fujimori edges ahead, CPI prints, Copom to hold

It's looking increasingly likely that right-wing candidate Fujimori will secure Peru's presidency. She's likely to govern on a conservative, market-friendly platform, but her ability to push through...

12th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia shifts right, 301 tariffs, El Niño

Abelardo de la Espriella’s victory in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election increases the likelihood of a shift to more pro-market policymaking and improved relations with the US. But we...

5th June 2026 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Ethiopia: what to expect from Abiy’s next term

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party will almost certainly win the election taking place today but the next administration faces a host of challenges. The government still...

1st June 2026 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

De la Espriella in pole position but faces hurdles

The strong showing for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election will be welcomed by investors. A further rally in the peso and a decline in...

1st June 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil inflation, COP drop, Venezuela’s restructuring

The latest macro data keep the door open to monetary easing in Brazil, but a rise in energy prices or an escalation of the scandal involving presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro that weighs more...

15th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia’s fiscal crossroads: continuity or austerity?

A victory for left-wing Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election would probably continue the Petro government’s track record of running large budget deficits, causing Colombia’s sovereign risk...

13th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Italy: fiscal risks rising

After three years of remarkable stability in Italy, a decline in Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s popularity and higher energy prices mean political and fiscal risks are rising again.

7th May 2026 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

West Bengal victory is pivotal for PM Modi’s BJP

The key takeaway from the results of the recent round of state elections – West Bengal in particular – is that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP is weathering the energy shock without a meaningful loss of...

5th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

A primer on Colombia’s high-stakes election

Colombians head to the polls on 31st May in an election which has major implications for the outlook for the economy and financial markets. This Update sets out the state of play, highlights the key...

29th April 2026 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming

This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase...

17th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Peru’s messy election, Brazil’s “Terrabras”

Peru's election results are still inconclusive five days after the vote. The scenario in which a far-left candidate (Roberto Sánchez) makes it to the presidential run-off vote, to be held in June...

17th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary votes for change

The macroeconomic impact of the landslide Tisza victory in Hungary is most likely to materialise over the medium term. More immediately, expectations for improved credibility policy and renewed access...

17th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Is Orbánomics to blame for Hungary’s economic woes?

The economic policy mix of the outgoing government of Viktor Orbán can partly explain the underperformance of Hungary’s economy over the past few years. And the change of government and the prospect...

14th April 2026 · 3 mins read