Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: no appetite for conventional fiscal tightening

Colombian President Petro’s recently published draft pension decree would, if implemented, reduce the government’s financing needs. But it won’t make much of a dent in the large budget deficit and...

5th March 2026 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Peru ousts another president, Colombia rebalancing?

The ousting of Peru's President Jerí this week will have limited immediate economic implications given that Peru's balance sheet is strong. But political instability - which is unlikely to go away...

20th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukrainian elections? Tisza manifesto, Romania GDP

Reports this week suggest that Ukraine has started to plan for elections and a referendum on a peace agreement, but most opinion polls suggest Ukrainians won't be supportive of an agreement that cedes...

13th February 2026 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Hungary: first thoughts on Tisza’s manifesto

The manifesto published by Tisza, the Hungarian opposition party which is currently the front-runner to win the upcoming election in April, sets out ambitious plans to unlock frozen EU funds, rein in...

9th February 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

French bond rally looks overdone

The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of...

30th January 2026 · 8 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

An LDP majority will not be fiscally profligate

New polling suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is on track to secure an outright majority in the lower house following elections on February 8th. Although there have been concerns in...

30th January 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained...

23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election

The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of...

20th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory

While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large...

19th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Dec. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional GDP growth will slow next year, which combined with softer inflation...

15th December 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

What Kast’s victory means for Chile

Chilean markets appear to have largely already priced in José Antonio Kast’s victory in the second round of the presidential election yesterday – and the prospect of stronger public finances and more...

15th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s fiscal risks, Mexico’s China tariffs

The Colombian senate’s rejection of President Petro's tax bill adds to our concerns that the country's already-fragile public finances are likely to deteriorate further ahead of next year’s election...

12th December 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Electoral forks in the road

Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large...

4th December 2025 · 23 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s slowdown, Honduras voting for Trump or Xi

GDP data from Brazil due out next Thursday are likely to show that the economy contracted in Q3, which, combined with the recent fall in inflation and inflation expectations, supports our view that...

28th November 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Has France’s RN turned moderate?

As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely...

20th November 2025 · 16 mins read