Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.

The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced oil wells to be shut which, alongside damage to energy infrastructure, means that it will take time for output to return to pre-war levels. Non-oil activity will suffer too, particularly in those parts of the economy most reliant on tourists or footfall. The rest of the region will endure softer growth and higher inflation. Egypt’s policy response, including allowing the pound to fall, will aid the adjustment there. We are most concerned about Tunisia, where the risk of a disorderly balance of payments crisis and sovereign default is growing.