Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike

The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow...

16th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The latest on the protests in Iran

The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to...

15th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela

The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of...

14th January 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications

It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents...

12th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Egypt heads to Washington

Israel and Hamas appear on the cusp of agreeing a long-awaited ceasefire agreement. If it holds, this puts the region on a path to end the war and removes key downside risks to the Middle East’s...

9th October 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Taking stock of the ‘12-Day War'

The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically and, even more quickly, subsided over the past week with the agreement of a ceasefire that has, so far, held. The focus now is on whether Iran pursues...

26th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jun. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict...

26th June 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the...

24th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf

The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is...

23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz

This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it...

23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read

Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers

The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is...

20th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Israel-Iran conflict scenarios, looking beyond oil prices

Oil prices continued to climb as the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, but the bigger picture is that the rise in gas prices has been just as significant, and agricultural prices will be next in line if...

20th June 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook

The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But...

19th June 2025 · 20 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict

Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in...

19th June 2025 · 8 mins read