Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow

Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to...

9th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas

Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip...

9th May 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf

OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth...

8th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (May 2025)

OPEC+’s announcement that it will pick up the pace of oil output increases for the second consecutive month in June helped to push oil prices to four-year lows. This represents a marked shift in...

8th May 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period...

8th May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia's soaring gold exports won’t prevent mining demise

Around half of the recent surge in gold exports reflects soaring prices. While the latter may encourage mining firms to expand output, it will probably take years for gold production to return to its...

8th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

New (lower) oil price forecasts

Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently...

6th May 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan?

This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We...

2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes

Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended...

2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Iberian blackout puts spotlight on grid infrastructure

It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable...

1st May 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot

Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But...

1st May 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't...

1st May 2025 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal?

This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for...

1st May 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases...

1st May 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk

This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage...

30th April 2025 · 6 mins read