The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo for another 5-8 months or so. However, if the latest diplomatic developments fail to re-open the Strait soon, the key risk is that OECD inventories still fall to levels associated with a “tipping point” for oil prices during July.
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