Commodities Update

Gold, equity bear markets, and recessions

While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here...

9th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Commodities escape firing line, but caught in crossfire

The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk...

3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Central banks buying more gold ≠ ditching the dollar

Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback. Instead...

31st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness

While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial...

24th March 2025 · 23 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Gold going for… gold; OPEC+’s grand plans

In what feels a lot like déjà vu at this point, gold set yet another record high this week, this time as it smashed through the $3,000 per ounce mark. While much ink has been spilled linking the...

21st March 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025)

Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs...

10th February 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

Platinum set to take a narrow lead over palladium

A slowdown in the adoption of EVs – along with an increasing preference for hybrids – is likely to increase demand for platinum by a bit more than for palladium over the coming years. Accordingly...

6th February 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Silver to outperform gold over the coming years

Traditionally, our bearish view on industrial metals, informed by China’s struggling property sector, would lead us to expect weakness in silver demand and prices. But given the growing use of silver...

27th January 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump’s social media outburst won’t worry the EU

President-elect Trump’s social media outburst warning the EU to buy more US oil and gas won’t cause sleepless nights in Brussels. After all, whereas EU officials might have balked had they been...

20th December 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic

Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the...

20th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

China’s appetite for gold will support prices in 2025

Given the deterioration in the outlook for Chinese equities and the prospect of a markedly weaker renminbi, China’s demand for gold in 2025 will be stronger than we had previously expected. In turn...

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Commodities Update

Is the gold rally over?

Despite the recent upward revisions to our forecasts for the US dollar and Treasury yields, we think the gold price will rise to $2,750 by end-2025. This reflects our view that stronger gold demand...

2nd December 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SA mining: onus is on reform for recovery

South Africa’s mining sector has been a struggling part of the economy for some time and, while easing logistical and electricity constraints will provide some relief, weaker commodity prices in the...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

OPEC+ and China, not Trump, will drive prices in 2025 Trump’s election victory won’t have a big impact on commodity markets in the short term. US oil and gas production is near record highs and prices...

7th November 2024 · 1 min read