Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities dance to the dollar’s tune Most commodity prices tracked the US dollar this week, falling sharply at the start of the week before staging a partial recovery in the latter half. Further dollar appreciation is likely given that... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly European natural gas supply fears ease, for now The big story this week has been the roughly 20% week-on-week fall in the European natural gas price, as mild autumn weather has combined with weak economic activity and the still-high gas price to... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in a tug of war This week, commodity prices continued to be caught in the middle of an ongoing tug of war between tight supply and deteriorating demand. We ultimately expect that to play out in two different ways... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of gold’s resistance to the surge in TIPS yields We suspect that the reduced liquidity of inflation-protected Treasuries vis-à-vis their conventional counterparts is one reason why the price of gold has not fallen as much as might have been expected... 14th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ looks set to agree a cut to output quotas The US dollar completed a round trip this week, continuing its relentless rise against most currencies early in the week, but then started to fall back from Wednesday afternoon and is now a touch... 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears trump supply fears, for now Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation... 16th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack Constrained supply to limit the falls in energy prices Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect... 14th September 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take... 5th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Gold’s lustre to return in 2023 Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough. What’s more, the price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Prices to find a floor While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months... 28th July 2022 · 40 mins read