Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Overview Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Watch Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history . The key takeaway is that... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals can’t escape China slowdown Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term... 3rd November 2021 · 20 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy to remain in the spotlight It is perhaps too soon to call the end of the energy price rally, but the prices of European natural gas and Chinese coal took a tumble this week as supply fears were, at least partially, allayed... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy supply squeeze to delay decline in prices Low stocks ahead of winter in the Northern Hemisphere have sent energy prices soaring. In turn, higher energy costs have also constrained the production of other commodities, most notably industrial... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to gold from lower real yields may not last We don’t expect the price of gold to continue to rebound. Our forecast remains that it will end 2023 at $1,550/oz., which compares to a current level of closer to $1,800/oz. 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium outlook brightest once auto sector rebounds The well-documented shortages of semiconductors have slammed the brakes on global vehicle production. As a result, the near-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) demand in autocatalysts have... 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tentative signs we are past the peak in energy prices The meteoric rise in energy commodity prices over the last few months lost momentum this week. Natural gas and coal prices were down particularly sharply in Europe after President Putin reiterated... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read