Crack spreads nearing a peak?; gold shines; El Niño looms

While we suspect that the upward pressure on oil product price spreads could soon start to ease, this does not mean that they will necessarily come back down quickly. And even if spreads stabilise, the potential for crude oil prices to rise further could still push up fuel prices and inflation. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a very strong El Niño and another spike in global temperatures next year adds to the problems facing agricultural supply.