Commodities Update

Constrained supply to bolster grains prices for longer

We now expect lower supply of grains over the coming months as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to reduce Black Sea exports and extreme weather conditions mean global stocks have been drawn down. We...

29th September 2022 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Demand fears trump supply fears, for now

Most commodity prices plunged this week on the back of monetary tightening by many major central banks, including the Fed, and an appreciation of the US dollar. There is still considerable uncertainty...

23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Fed tightening presents a difficult backdrop for prices

Most commodity prices have struggled to make gains since the US August CPI data were published on Tuesday. The unexpectedly strong reading prompted a rise in Treasury yields and US dollar appreciation...

16th September 2022 · 6 mins read

Metals

Constrained supply to limit the falls in energy prices

Energy prices have been falling recently as concerns about weaker demand took centre-stage, but we expect constrained supply to put a floor under prices in the coming months. By contrast, we expect...

14th September 2022 · 14 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Energy supply concerns take a back seat… for now

Energy markets took centre stage this week as demand concerns outweighed supply concerns, dragging prices down. Even the decision by OPEC+ on Monday to cut oil output quotas for October by 100,000 bpd...

9th September 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume

This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further...

12th August 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

Gloomy outlook for use of agriculturals in industry

Deteriorating global economic growth over the coming quarters will weigh on industrial demand for cotton, natural rubber and lumber. That said, high oil prices will offer some support to cotton and...

10th August 2022 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again

Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming...

10th August 2022 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain

In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take...

5th August 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Prices rally, but room for further gains is limited

The prices of most commodities across energy, metals and agriculturals rose this week. The common driver was investors dialling back their expectations of the aggressiveness of US monetary policy...

29th July 2022 · 6 mins read

Metals

Prices to find a floor

While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months...

28th July 2022 · 40 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Dollar strength likely to return and weigh on prices

It was a more positive week for prices, in large part owing to some softness in the US dollar. Otherwise, the news was not particularly positive for prices given the ECB’s surprise decision to hike...

22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Demand fears in the driving seat, for now

Most commodity prices fell this week as global monetary tightening and fears about economic growth intensified. The high June inflation reading in the US nails on another large rate hike at the FOMC’s...

15th July 2022 · 6 mins read

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Strong US dollar to remain a headwind for prices

There was no clear direction in commodity prices this week, even within the same types of commodities. The takeaway is that commodity prices were dancing to their own tunes. Take energy, for example...

8th July 2022 · 6 mins read

Metals

Softer demand, but supply to remain tight

Non-energy commodities prices generally fell in June on the back of concerns about the outlook for demand amid global monetary tightening and slower economic growth. Energy prices may also fall a...

6th July 2022 · 13 mins read