The most acute geopolitical and tariff-related distortion in commodity markets has eased, leaving fundamentals more firmly in the driver’s seat going forward. While the Russia-Ukraine war still presents risks to Russia’s energy supply and upside risks to prices, we expect both energy and industrial metals prices to fall by more than the consensus as demand underperforms expectations and supply becomes more abundant. The key exception is gold where non-traditional structural tailwinds will continue to push prices to record highs over the coming years.
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