Commodities Update Key Commodity themes to watch in 2026 Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026. 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Record-high metals prices to fall back in 2026 The outlook for oil is dominated by an abundance of supply, which will continue to weigh on prices over our forecast horizon. Meanwhile, although structural demand factors will keep gold and silver... 15th December 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Plenty of oil on water; revising down our gold forecast While the fallout from US sanctions on Russian oil majors has yet to manifest in the data, Russian seaborne oil exports are strong, and a wider... 5th November 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities & the tariff shock six months on Six months on from the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff agenda, the direct effects on commodity markets have been contained to higher US price premiums for steel and aluminium. That said... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Gold prices to buck the downbeat trend The most acute geopolitical and tariff-related distortion in commodity markets has eased, leaving fundamentals more firmly in the driver’s seat going forward. While the Russia-Ukraine war still... 24th September 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Outlook Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook Although instability in the Middle East could easily push oil prices into triple-digit territory, as things stand, the oil market looks set to remain well-supplied and so we expect bearish... 23rd June 2025 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US tariffs: what next for commodity markets? Tariffs have already boosted commodity prices in the US, and the risks to global prices and trade flows will only grow if tariffs become more widespread. Our Oil and Metals Tariff Impact Trackers are... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump continues to strain relations with MENA President Trump’s doubling down on the future of Gaza continues to muddle efforts to bring the Middle East into the US’s sphere of influence. Meanwhile, the UAE and Bahrain are the two countries in... 13th February 2025 · 8 mins read
