The recovery in energy exports from the Middle East will take longer than we previously expected and is consistent with continued draws on global oil stocks as well as a further tightening in natural gas markets over the northern hemisphere winter. We now forecast Brent crude and TTF gas prices to end this year at $100pb and €80 per MWh respectively, and the risks to these near-term forecasts are skewed to the upside. However, if our assumption that exports will recover to pre-war levels from early-2027 proves accurate, this would be consistent with oil and natural gas prices falling next year, and gradually relieve pressure on oil product prices too.
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