Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Egypt’s LNG imports, Gulf and the Fed Oil prices continued to fall this week, despite OPEC+’s decision to roll over production cuts. And given the way OPEC+ is now losing market share, we think the case for Saudi Arabia, the group’s de... 12th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Commodities Focus Will India kickstart the next commodity boom? With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lack of ceasefire deal poses risks; gold at record The apparent stall in the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas limited the fall in oil prices this week. While we think a deal wouldn’t be a game-changer for oil prices, a further breakdown in... 23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update History rhyming, but won’t repeat, for EU natural gas Developments in Ukraine have once again emerged as a key driver of EU natural gas prices. But a combination of lower gas use and the sourcing of alternative supplies in Europe means that the situation... 12th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly EU natural gas prices chart their own course It was no surprise to see the global commodity price index fall and rise alongside the contortions in equity markets this week. But commodity prices have not all been in the same boat; whereas some... 9th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants... 25th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update Europe natural gas price to stay lower than Asia LNG Booming demand for LNG in Asia this year has helped push prices in Asia to a sizeable premium over those in Europe. We think that this premium will remain above 10% over the rest of the year but will... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Trump’s return and the Ukraine war – Key macro and market implications 1721916000 Donald Trump says he can end the war in Ukraine in a day if he’s re-elected this November.
Commodities Weekly Traditional gold price drivers come back into focus The ~18% rise in gold prices seen this year has largely defied the traditional logic of demand drivers. Indeed, the surge in gold prices between February and April took place against a backdrop of a... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Taking stock of hurricane season energy risks While the fossil fuel sector looks set to get off relatively lightly from Hurricane Beryl, the prospect of a busier than usual Atlantic hurricane season this year raises the chances of greater... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (July 2024) China overcapacity fears coming to industrial metals China’s dominant role in the world of commodities is evolving subtly. This is particularly the case for gold, where increased demand by the PBoC... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Economics, not the White House, the key to US energy The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Donald Trump has made it clear he would provide greater support for the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is... 27th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Commodity prices to fall back We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to... 27th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Event Drop-In: Commodities Outlook – Where next for energy, gold and industrial metals prices? 1719909000 Will China’s economy continue supporting metals demand? What would Donald Trump’s re-election mean for energy markets?
