Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher LNG demand to drive Henry Hub prices up The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The makings of a global LNG glut With demand for LNG unlikely to keep pace with the looming surge in supply over the coming years, a glut of natural gas will weigh heavily on benchmark prices in Asia and Europe. Our forecasts for... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
Commodities Update US oil output resilient amid industry “disruption” On the face of it, the US administration’s focus on lower oil prices, even at the cost of industry “disruption,” bodes ill for US oil production. That said, our forecast for WTI to fall to $56pb by... 17th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s economy waits for the North Field boost Qatar’s economy will be stuck in the slow lane for much of 2025 as non-hydrocarbon activity slows and LNG output remains constrained. But the North Field will start to come online from Q4 and provide... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Assessing the post-Ukraine war energy landscape While some Russian pipeline gas flows into the EU could resume as part of any Ukraine-Russia peace deal, at most such supplies would probably only recover to about a quarter of pre-invasion levels... 24th February 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: OPEC+ in a bind; US-Russia-Ukraine & energy markets Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an earlier Ukraine peace deal for Europe President Trump’s push for an early peace agreement in Ukraine raises the prospect of higher defence spending in Europe and increases the chance of a fall in European natural gas prices. But it does... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
