Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Zambia IMF money, Lower West African cocoa harvests Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week and, given severe fiscal strains, it seems most likely that policymakers will seek a successor programme when the current one ends in October... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: China “Mega Dam” context; tweaked OPEC assumptions China’s new “Mega Dam” project will obviously require huge amounts of raw material and will generate more renewable electricity than most countries. However, anyone hoping that the project will make a... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as... 11th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update US copper tariffs mask soft underlying fundamentals The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back... 9th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook Although instability in the Middle East could easily push oil prices into triple-digit territory, as things stand, the oil market looks set to remain well-supplied and so we expect bearish... 23rd June 2025 · 22 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tensions bubble in OPEC+; Tariffs shake metals again Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we believe this new faster pace of production rises is here to stay. That said, signs of growing... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Steel tariff hike deals fresh blow to manufacturers Any short-term boost to domestic steel and aluminium production from higher tariffs is likely to be short-lived and offset by declining output in metal-using industries – making the tariff hike a drag... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (June 2025) OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to add oil to the market in July at a pace faster than they had planned a few months prior solidified a marked shift in the group’s output policy. This will... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly On, off, and on again tariffs is a recipe for volatility Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
