OPEC+ undershoots, copper goes for gold
OPEC+’s decision to raise its output quota by 137,000 bpd in November confounded reports of a larger rise in the run-up to the decision and provided short-lived support to Brent crude prices. In any case, the combination of additional oil output and a subdued demand backdrop, will drive oil prices down towards our below-consensus forecast of $60pb by end-25 and $50pb by end-26.
Meanwhile, worries of tightening supplies in the copper market set a rally in motion. That said, we think that the record strength in production should absorb this momentum before long, with prices falling back by year-end. Gold prices also continue to soar, with investor demand from the West taking centre-stage. However, weakening demand from Chinese investors could open the door to a short-term pull back in prices.
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