Commodities Update Iberian blackout puts spotlight on grid infrastructure It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 ‘25, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of Q1 GDP showed that the Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q , translating into a year-on-year increase of just 2.7% to kick off the year. But with revisions and rebases... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Lessons from US-China trade war 1.0 for soybeans Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil supply concerns retake the reins While various tariff-related carveouts have helped to ease concerns about some of the most acute tail-risks facing global oil demand, support for benchmark prices is being eroded by renewed concerns... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher LNG demand to drive Henry Hub prices up The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 25) UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Expectations for oil demand still too strong The IEA and OPEC both lowered their oil demand forecasts this week, reflecting the impact of Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, though those forecasts still appear overly rosy. Our base... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will likely see limited direct impact from the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. But the bigger growth worry should come from the US trade turmoil... 16th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariffs add to existing oil demand woes The escalation of the US-China trade war continued to buffet commodity prices this week. While the final shape of trade policy remains uncertain, demand shocks in the world’s two largest oil consumers... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
