Chief Economist's Note Israel-Iran and economic risk in a world of radical uncertainty The rapid escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has now pulled in the US, has – for the time being at least – displaced trade, tariffs and fiscal vulnerabilities at the top of a... 23rd June 2025
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian... 20th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel-Iran conflict scenarios, looking beyond oil prices Oil prices continued to climb as the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, but the bigger picture is that the rise in gas prices has been just as significant, and agricultural prices will be next in line if... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But... 19th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Counting the economic cost of the Iran-Israel conflict Israel and Iran have continued to trade strikes over the past week, which is likely to exact a high cost on Iran’s own economy. But for the Gulf economies, so long as they don’t become embroiled in... 19th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Commodities Update How could Israel-Iran escalation affect energy prices? Oil prices could feasibly surge to $130-150pb were hostilities between Israel and Iran to escalate in a way that resulted in major disruption to Middle Eastern energy exports and/or shipping through... 18th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out Israel-Iran conflict scenarios This Update outlines potential outcomes of the Iran-Israel conflict and teases out the implications for the region, the global economy and commodity and financial markets. One point that emerges is... 18th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update US oil producers face a bad hand and a wildcard If escalating tensions in the Middle East drive a prolonged period of higher oil prices, that could provide enough of an incentive for US oil producers to sustain the current high level of output for... 16th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Iran conflict: the macro, geopolitical and oil market fallout The Israel-Iran conflict has continued to escalate. This Update summarises how our views on the macro impact have evolved over the past few days and answers the most frequently asked client questions... 16th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel’s strikes on Iran put the ball in OPEC+’s court From an oil market perspective, the key risk from the latest flare-up in the Middle East is that the nature of retaliatory action disrupts oil supply and trade in the region. OPEC+ will be the key... 13th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC+ oil demand cannot prevent prices from falling Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices. However, given that any boost to... 10th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tensions bubble in OPEC+; Tariffs shake metals again Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we believe this new faster pace of production rises is here to stay. That said, signs of growing... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil... 5th June 2025 · 6 mins read
