Commodities Focus

How the AI race will reshape global energy markets

Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US...

21st July 2025 · 15 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market

New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: India hoping to seal a better US trade deal than Asian peers

President Trump's comments this week that a trade deal with India is "close" but that it may be along the "same line" as the one announced with Indonesia on Wednesday raises the prospect that India...

18th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Low EU gas storage levels to push prices up this year

European natural gas stores are low and efforts to refill them will support prices over the rest of this year. Further ahead, increased supply should bring prices down to a below consensus €25 per MWh...

15th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Can energy markets eat secondary tariffs on Russia?

In light of President Trump's announcement of a reduced deadline of 10 to 12 days for Russia to make progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, we are re-sending this Update assessing the...

14th July 2025 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa

South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Gold at record highs, oil under pressure, OPEC in question

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Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion.

Commodities Weekly

Commodities Weekly: Oil market is slightly parched at best; clarity on copper tariffs

The description of the global oil market as being “thirsty”, made by the Energy Minister of the UAE this week, risks confusing a seasonal pick-up in oil demand over the northern hemisphere summer as...

11th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s reform push, OPEC+ decision, Saudi real estate

The delay to Egypt’s IMF review is not too concerning for the country’s balance of payments, but it underscores the difficulty of successfully achieving the goals of the privatisation drive. Elsewhere...

10th July 2025 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

US copper tariffs mask soft underlying fundamentals

The looming imposition of tariffs on copper by the US will continue to support prices in the US. But for all the attention on the surge in prices there, it won’t be long before fundamentals snap back...

9th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Oil, copper and global macro drivers

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From OPEC+ pumping in ever-greater volumes to Donald Trump threatening 50% tariffs on copper, the near-term commodity outlook is being reshaped by both supply moves and political risk. 

Commodities Update

US agriculture to remain resilient in face of headwinds

The combination of exposure to retaliatory tariffs, upward pressure on input costs, and heavy reliance on “unauthorised” labour means that the outlook for the US farming sector is highly uncertain...

9th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume...

7th July 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running

The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will...

7th July 2025 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation

We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the...

4th July 2025 · 4 mins read