Latin America Economics Update

Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift

The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%...

12th May 2026 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil market has been scarred by the supply shock

While an agreement between the US and Iran to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for another leg down in oil prices, supply conditions could remain tight for several months while...

8th May 2026 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil pivots towards rare earth nationalism

A bill approved by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies this week tackles some of the key impediments to (currently minimal) rare earths extraction. However, the bill gives the government significant control...

7th May 2026 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock

An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be...

6th May 2026 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news...

1st May 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026)

The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher...

30th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC minus, US blockade

The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz...

30th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Commodities Update

Five key questions on the UAE’s OPEC exit

This Update considers the economic and geopolitical implications of the UAE’s departure from OPEC, as well as the future of the group. Note: We’ll be discussing the UAE's exit from OPEC in an online...

28th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Commodities Rapid Response

UAE's exit from OPEC could be the thin end of the wedge

28th April 2026 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound

Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of...

24th April 2026 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil buffers are depleting amid extended ceasefires

Despite recent extensions of ceasefires in the Middle East, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill and Brent crude oil prices are back above $100pb. The impact from the...

24th April 2026 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely

The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in...

23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround

The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous...

22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read