We suspect that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will result in a decision to keep oil production unchanged in October, rather than raise production further. But the risks to oil prices are still skewed to the downside. Lower oil prices have already prompted the Saudi government to increase debt issuance which, for now, looks sustainable. But a sustained period of large deficits could put the debt position on a worrying trajectory. Finally, the Kingdom has continued to push ahead with housing reforms to improve home ownership potential, which remains on pace to exceed the Vision 2030 target.
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